BIG EAST GAME PREVIEW: Villanova @ Notre Dame

January 28, 2006

Some of the biggest upsets in college basketball history have come on the Notre Dame campus, although an Irish win on Saturday would hardly fall into that category, it would be quite a win for a team in desperate need of something good to happen!

The Irish prepare to take on the Villanova Wildcats, who are 5-1 in the Big East Conference, while Notre Dame sits close to the bottom of the conference at 1-5. One could argue that over the course of their last six games the Irish have played fairly well, just coming up short, while, the Wildcats, in their last six games, have not been playing all that well, just getting enough to win four of those games. So, does this game reverse the trend for either club?

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First thing of interest is the sore hamstring of Villanova star guard Allan Ray. Ray missed Villanova's narrow 49-46 win at South Florida earlier this week and had not practiced during the week at all. Villanova was impressive in their win against Syracuse last Saturday, but in their last six games, that was the only time that impressive really fits as a term in describing the Wildcats. However, when a team is forced to go with predominately a 4-guard line-up, shooting and defense will be what carries them through. To their credit, when their shooting has let them down, their defense has remained consistent, allowing them to survive on most nights. Even if they are forced to go to a 3-guard line-up, their match-ups with the Irish are still pretty favorable as their style of perimeter defense could give the Irish preimeter trio of Chris Quinn, Kyle McAlarney and Colin Falls all they can handle with their athleticism and extended on the ball pressure, taking their shooters out of their comfort zone. Notre Dame should be able to make some progress inside with their group of Torin Francis, Rob Kurz, Luke Zeller and Ricky Cornett against Will Sheridan, Jason Fraser, Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark, but the way the Irish inside game has been utilized and cultivated, it is unlikely to be much of an advantage.

There is no way that Notre Dame could defense the athletic group of guards Villanova will put on the floor man to man. Randy Foye, Mike Nardi and Kyle Lowry would have a field day putting the ball on the floor and utilizing dribble penetration to score on their own, dish to the big men once help is needed or kicking back out for an open 3 if the defense pinches to help. Of course, having a healthy Allan Ray knocking down the perimeter shots would be a big help in this game plan. The Irish would likely use a lot of Russel Carter to help on the perimeter defense and could go really small in a line-up with him, too.

Kyle Lowry seems to really be the x-factor in this game. Even if the Irish do all they can to limit the rest of the Wildcats, there probably is no answer for Lowry. His presence really poses match-up problems and if they have to adjust for him, then look out of Foye and Ray getting their games going. This just seems to be one of those nightmare match-ups for the Irish who seem a step slow at getting key rebounds or big defensive stops. That is not a good sign against a team like Villanova, who will make you play small and quick. The Irish do not play big enough to try to impose their will, so it looks to be a bad match-up, even at home.

However, something tells me Notre Dame stays in this, with a chance to surprise. Villanova's shooting has not been that great lately and Ray's questionable status worries me a bit. But, Villanova is a little deeper than given credit for and they pull out a close one.

NBE Blogger Prediction:

Villanova 68 Notre Dame 64